Have we reached peak coffee?

Key to this reset is a greater focus on culture, history and farm stories, much like in the cheese and wine industry, Giovannucci says. He points to Parmigiana, Stilton and Champagne — products that are geographically specific and command good prices.

“The question for us is, I think, whether the industry will be smart enough to create the narratives we’re talking about — of amplifying the intangibles of an origin, of a human and ecological story,” he says.

Organisations connected to the coffee industry are now rallying to try and save its long-term future.

The WCR argues an injection of cash into agriculture research and development could tackle the impact of climate change as well as ensure coffee producers make a decent living. An extra $452mn a year over the next decade is needed to ensure farmers have the plant varieties and innovations needed, the non-profit concluded in research released this June.

The cash, ideally from a mix of public and private investment, could help fund research into more resilient plants, better disease and pest control, new ways of protecting water and natural resources and enhancing soil health, as well as best practice in farm management.

Where the investment would go would depend on who was funding it. But it is consuming countries that need to “lean in” to co-finance this R&D agenda alongside low-income, producing nations after decades of underinvestment, says Long of the WCR.

“Then we could actually create the kind of innovation required to meet all of our consumer demands around greenhouse gases, reduce pesticide use, drive up productivity, which gives farmers a pay rise, and really enable many countries to successfully export coffee. It’s doable.”

Alongside agricultural R&D, improved access to marketing expertise and the use of technology, such as using DNA fingerprinting to identify varieties that can then be promoted to roasters, could all help drive up productivity and prices. Further support for these measures, in addition to access to finance and credit mechanisms, will help bridge the gap between production and consumption, Long says.

Most of the increase in production over the past decade has come from just three countries — Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia — which have all invested in farm technology and climate-resistant plants.

“As a scientist, I’m an eternal optimist,” says Long. “I think we can innovate our way out of this mess.”

The ICO has also established a task force, made up of about 40 stakeholders, spanning big brands and governments. Its road map aims to guarantee an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable coffee supply by 2030.

Climate change is “coming faster” than the industry thought, admits the ICO’s Nogueira, and innovators are trying to find short-term solutions “in a culture that is not used to the short term”. “I can’t say I am not worried, but we have many people in the industry, many researchers in the world who are looking for solutions.”

The big coffee companies, however, have been accused by growers and sustainability experts of not doing enough to help.

Michelle Burns, head of global coffee, social impact and sustainability at Starbucks, says the company is “committed to sourcing coffee responsibly, for the betterment of people and planet” and is “actively working to ensure” the future of coffee at the company’s own research coffee farm in Costa Rica.

The company has invested more than $150mn in communities to encourage innovation, will donate 100mn climate-resilient coffee trees to Central America by 2025 and has co-created the Sustainable Coffee Challenge with Conservation International to find other solutions, she says. The company also pays farmers above the market price, she adds.

A longer-term, radical solution, put forward by scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, is to broaden the “global crop portfolio”, introducing another bean. A variant of coffea liberica — popular in the 19th century but dismissed for its unpleasant flavour — is showing promise, say researchers.

Liberica rose to prominence in the late 1870s but its flavour profile did not catch on © Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew

Alongside renewed interest in the traditional, larger-seeded liberica, an increasing numbers of farmers in Uganda and South Sudan have begun turning to a smaller-seeded variant of the species, known as excelsa. While they previously mixed it into lower-priced robusta, they are now beginning to sell it under its own name.

With a taste closer to arabica but thriving under warmer conditions at lower elevations like robusta, excelsa shows promise, says Kew Gardens’ Davis. He suggests it could be bred with arabica or robusta to create more climate-resilient plants or even become a commercially viable product in its own right. Coffee traders are already planning to ship the bean, described in Kew research as having tasting notes of “cocoa nibs, peanut butter, dried fruits, demerara sugar and maple syrup”, to speciality roasters.

“I think the key thing for us is it has the potential to be mainstreamed,” says Davis. “This is not something that’s niche.”

The ICO’s Nogueira, who grew up on a small coffee farm in Brazil, is open to the idea. “In some years, maybe we will be talking about arabica, robusta, liberica and others in the same way.”

What is clear to almost everyone involved with coffee, though, is that something has to change, and quickly, if future demand is to be met.

Vivek Verma, chief executive of the coffee side of the Ofi trading company, says consumers now consider coffee “more of a necessity than a luxury” and that new blends may well have to be introduced to serve them. But the industry still needs to make it economically viable for producers to keep their farms going to do so, he adds.

“Otherwise we risk losing some of the rich diversity of flavours from multiple origins that gives coffee its widespread charm and appeal.”