Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Mystery is still swirling around the fate of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander after Ukraine said he had been killed in a strike on Russia’s naval headquarters, but a video was published Tuesday appearing to show Admiral Viktor Sokolov alive.

After Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video appearing to show Sokolov alive and attending a meeting of defense officials via video conference, Ukraine’s special operations forces admitted it had not confirmed Sokolov’s death in last Friday’s strike on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, and said it was “clarifying information.”

Defense and security analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News Tuesday that it’s still not clear whether the person in the Russian Defense Ministry meeting is Sokolov.

“We’ve looked at the video, it’s not very clear and it jumps around quite a lot. We’ve located the person on the video who looks most like Sokolov, and it may be him, but it’s not a completely clear match,” Clarke said.

“It could be Sokolov, looking at previous photographs of him. On the other hand, there’s still no proof that this video is really current,” he said, adding that “there’s a lot of evidence that Sokolov was in the building that was hit on Friday by a couple of Storm Shadow missiles.”

“So it is possible that Sokolov lives. But I think the Russians would have to produce more convincing evidence than this if they want to be taken seriously on this particular issue.”

Clarke noted that it was “odd that producing a rather vague video and saying he’s here somewhere, and leaving it to news organisations like us to try to work out who it might be, is less than clear in the message they were trying to send.”

—‎ Holly Ellyatt‏

Belarus again ruled out participating in the war in Ukraine alongside Russia, with its top diplomat insisting that a political and diplomatic solution is the only way to end the conflict.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleynik was asked by the Associated Press whether he sees a situation in which Belarus could take part in the war.

“My answer is no,” Aleynik said, adding that Russia’s longstanding ally Belarus has always supported peace in its neighboring country and will continue “to do everything in our power” to achieve it.

He told AP that no one knows how long the war will last, but “we all understand that there is no alternative to the political and diplomatic solution for this conflict.”

Aleynik noted that Minsk had held three rounds of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations last year “and they began to develop some elements of a potential peace agreement.” 

But he blamed Ukraine and other countries “indirectly involved in the conflict” for the failure of those negotiations, and said Belarus “will continue to make peace efforts.”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is known as “Europe’s last dictator,” having ruled in Belarus for nearly three decades. He is a firm, if subservient, ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, having received political and financial support from Moscow over the years.

Nonetheless, Belarus has so far resisted actively entering the war alongside Russia, although it has provided logistical support and allowed Russian forces to launch their invasion on northern Ukraine from its territory. It has also allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus.

When asked whether he foresees a situation in which those weapons could be used, Aleynik told the AP that he didn’t see “such an option because it is an instrument of defense primarily.”

But if Belarus were invaded, “I will not exclude any instruments to be used to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country,” he said.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that he had visited troops near the frontline in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, upon orders from President Vladimir Putin, according to AFP.

“On the instructions of the president, I visited a firing range near the contact line on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” said Medvedev, who also formerly served as prime minister.

“The servicemen are demonstrating excellent combat qualities of will, firmness and a general attitude to victory,” Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Kremlin’s Security Council, said in a video posted on social media.

He added that “over 325,000 people” had been recruited into the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the year — up from the figure of 280,000 he gave at the start of the month.

CNBC was unable to independently verify these numbers.

— Karen Gilchrist

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said in a statement Tuesday that they had not confirmed the death of the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

Ukraine previously said Monday that Sokolov and 33 other naval officers had been killed in a strike on the naval base in Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea, on Friday.

But Russian news agency Tass showed a video on its news website in which Sokolov was seen taking part in a video conference with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other officials.

CNBC was unable to independently verify when the footage, which was distributed by Russia’s defense ministry, was filmed.

— Karen Gilchrist

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Tuesday plans to increase the supply of modern weapons to the Russian army, according to comments reported by Russian news agency Interfax.

“We continue to increase the combat power of the armed forces, including through the supply of modern weapons and improving the training of troops, taking into account the experience of a special military operation,” Shoigu reportedly said at the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Shoigu said the plans were designed to be implemented by 2025.

Russian forces in the Southern Military District will receive 5,500 units of modern military equipment this year, he said, “and the commissioning of more than five hundred infrastructure facilities will be completed,” he said without giving further details.

He also said that since the beginning of the year, the number of officers in the district has increased by 11,000 people, and contract military personnel by 30,000 people. Shoigu said combat training and training grounds were being modernized.

In addition, Shoigu said that new formations of the Airborne Forces are being created in Russia and their strike capabilities are being increased.

“We continue to equip the Airborne Forces with the latest weapons. Since the beginning of the year, formations and military units have received more than two thousand pieces of equipment and five and a half thousand sets of landing equipment and parachute systems.”

Shoigu said that the plans would allow the Airborne Forces to increase their combat potential by 1.3 times by the end of the year, while its firepower would increase by 20%.

— Holly Ellyatt

In recent days, Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that’s based in Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, with its attack on the naval base last Friday causing significant damage to the fleet’s headquarters.

The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence noted in an intelligence update Tuesday that attacks in recent days “have been more damaging and more coordinated than thus far in the war.”

Posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, the U.K. said that while the “physical damage to the Black Sea Fleet is almost certainly severe but localised” it said “the fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols.”

Nonetheless, the ministry noted that the Russian navy’s “ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will be diminished.”

“It also likely has a degraded ability to defend its assets in port and to conduct routine maintenance,” it said.

“A dynamic, deep strike battle is underway in the Black Sea. This is likely forcing Russia into a reactive posture whilst demonstrating that Ukraine’s military can undermine the Kremlin’s symbolic and strategic power projection from its warm water port in occupied Sevastopol,” the ministry said.

— Holly Ellyatt

The commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, who Ukraine claimed it had killed in a missile strike on the Russian naval headquarters in Crimea, has been seen attending a video conference with Russian defense officials Tuesday.

Ukraine said Monday that Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and 33 other naval officers had been killed in its strike on the naval base in Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Russian news agency Tass showed the video on its news website, in which Sokolov is seen taking part in a video conference with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and officials. It’s uncertain when the footage, which was distributed by the defense ministry, was filmed.

At the time of the attack last Friday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said the historical building of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters had been damaged and said one serviceman was missing. It said Russian air defenses shot down five missiles. 

Earlier, the Kremlin said it had no comment on Ukraine’s claim that Sokolov had been killed in the attack.

— Holly Ellyatt