One percent.
When the Green Bay Packers lost to Philadelphia in Week 12, they fell to 4-8 on the year and their odds of reaching the postseason were a dreary 1%.
What a difference a month makes.
The Packers routed arch-rival Minnesota, 41-17, Sunday. Green Bay improved to 8-8 after its fourth straight win and amazingly, now controls its playoff fate.
The Packers and Detroit (8-8) are tied for the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC. And those two teams will meet at Lambeau Field Jan. 8 in a winner-take-all affair.
Green Bay will enter that contest brimming with confidence after routing Minnesota in its finest performance of the 2022 season.
Here’s the good, bad and ugly from Green Bay’s win over the Vikings.
THE GOOD
DOMINANT DEFENSE: The Packers chirped throughout the offseason how they’d have one of the NFL’s top defenses in 2022. That seemed reasonable, too, considering Green Bay ranked ninth in total defense in 2021, then used a pair of first round draft picks on the defensive side of the ball.
For most of the year, though, the Packers’ defense has disappointed, and they entered Sunday ranked 17th in total defense and scoring defense. But in Green Bay’s biggest game of the year, its defense stole the show.
The Packers limited Minnesota to three points until the final minutes and forced four turnovers.
Safeties Darnell Savage, Adrian Amos and Rudy Ford all had interceptions. Defensive end Kenny Clark also had a strip sack of quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Green Bay’s defense made an enormous goal line stand early, keeping Minnesota out of the endzone after it started at the Packers’ 1-yard line. And they continued to dominate the rest of the day.
“I think there’s more urgency nowadays,” Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander said of the Packers’ defense. “Because it’s been playoff football now for a few weeks. The last time I got up and spoke to the team was after our last loss, to the Eagles. And what I said that day, it resonated. You feel me? It’s playoff football.”
JAIRE ALEXANDER: Green Bay’s No. 1 cornerback has begged to shadow No. 1 wide receivers throughout his career.
Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry gave Alexander that chance Sunday and he delivered.
Alexander followed Justin Jefferson — arguably the best receiver in football — for much of the game and held him to one catch for 15 yards. In the Week 1 meeting between these teams, Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns when Green Bay opted not to shadow the elite pass catcher.
Jefferson entered the game with 123 receptions this season for 1,756 yards and eight touchdowns. And Jefferson clearly had the 2,000-yard mark in his sights.
But after Alexander shut Jefferson down Sunday, that lofty goal seems unlikely.
KEISEAN NIXON: We’ve asked it before. We’ll ask it again.
How was Amari Rodgers Green Bay’s primary return man for nearly half the season?
Nixon became the Packers’ kick returner in Week 8 at Buffalo and has been the best in the league ever since.
Nixon’s brilliant season continued Sunday, when he returned a kickoff 105 yards for a touchdown to give the Packers a 7-3 lead. It was Green Bay’s first kickoff return for a TD since Week 1, 2011, when Randall Cobb had a return TD against New Orleans.
“I was just waiting,” Nixon said of getting his chance. “At the end of the day, it wasn’t as serious as people made it seem. Kick returner’s just another opp for me to get on the field, which is fun. I play like it’s fun. I’m just one person trying to run from people.”
Nixon has done a heck of a job running from foes.
He had a 53-yard kickoff return against Philadelphia, a 52-yarder against the Rams and a 93-yarder against Miami. But Nixon changed the momentum of the game Sunday with his long touchdown return.
“I love how Keisean plays,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “His mentality, I mean, both on teams as a returner, as a flier, whatever it may be, he does a great job.
“So I think he’s got a dog mentality, and it’s infectious. He’s got great energy. He prepares the right way. He’s just a heck of a competitor. I’m certainly glad that he’s on our team.”
DARNELL SAVAGE: Green Bay’s safety was benched in Week 12 and played just two snaps in a three-game stretch.
But Savage played well last week when Rudy Ford was injured. Savage was back in the starting lineup Sunday and made one of the biggest plays of his career.
Minnesota had a fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 37 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter and quarterback Kirk Cousins tried jamming a ball into tight end T.J. Hockenson. Packers’ cornerback Rasul Douglas deflected the ball and it bounced right to Savage, who made his first interception of the year.
Savage raced from his own 25-yard line to midfield, then darted left, where he picked up a convoy of blocks. Cousins was the last player with a chance to catch Savage, but Preston Smith knocked the quarterback to the ground and Savage waltzed in for a 75-yard TD.
“You’ve got to give Savage a ton of credit because some guys don’t handle it the right way, and he handled it like a pro,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of how Savage handled his benching. “That’s what we expect. … A lot of tough decisions are made – and I’m just really proud of the way that he battled through that.”
RUN TO GLORY: Teams that can run the ball in December and January are tough to beat.
Green Bay’s running game was tremendous against Minnesota, as the Packers piled up 163 rushing yards on 33 carries (4.9 average).
Aaron Jones led the way with 111 yards on just 14 carries (7.9). A.J. Dillon added 41 yards and a touchdown and Green Bay’s offensive line got the better of Minnesota’s defensive front throughout.
MASON CROSBY: The Packers activated kicker Ramiz Ahmed on Saturday in part because Crosby’s leg strength appeared to be declining.
Not so fast.
Crosby drilled a 56-yard field goal on the final play of the first half, a kick that hit the crossbar and bounced over. It was the longest field goal Crosby ever made at Lambeau Field and the second-longest of his career.
In addition, Crosby handled kickoff duties and made Ahmed’s promotion seem entirely unnecessary.
MERRY CHRISTMAS: The Packers needed a Washington loss to grab control their own playoff destiny. And that’s exactly what happened when Cleveland defeated the Commanders, 24-10.
Washington made the questionable decision to bench quarterback Taylor Heinicke for Carson Wentz blew up in his face. Wentz threw three interceptions, no touchdowns and had a dreadful passer rating of 31.4.
“I have high expectations for myself and this team, and we underperformed — I did, myself, as well,” said Wentz, who was 16 of 28 for 143 yards. “That’s not what I had in mind and what we had in mind as a team. Not the performance I envisioned. A lot of stuff I want back. Yeah, that was a tough one.”
A tough one for Washington, but a terrific one for Green Bay.
THIS AND THAT: Adrian Amos had his first interception of the year and the 10th of his career. Amos intercepted a pass intended for Justin Jefferson midway through the second quarter and returned it 26 yards to the Green Bay 40. … Tight end Robert Tonyan caught a 21-yard touchdown late in the second quarter, his first TD since Week 4 against New England. … A.J. Dillon had a 2-yard rushing touchdown, marking the fifth straight game he’s had a rushing TD. Dillon has six touchdowns in that five-game stretch. … Aaron Rodgers had a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown. That was Rodgers’ first rushing TD since Nov. 28, 2021 against the Los Angeles Rams.
THE BAD
LATE SCORES: Green Bay’s defense played its finest game of the 2022 season — and perhaps its best game of the Joe Barry-era. So granted, we’re nit-picking here.
But Kirk Cousins and Jalen Nailor hooked up for a late, 47-yard touchdown. The Packers had a busted coverage in back, Rudy Ford missed a tackle at the 20-yard line and reserve cornerback Corey Ballentine couldn’t catch Nailor.
Minnesota reserve quarterback Nick Mullens then hit K.J. Osborn for 9-yard TD pass with 21 seconds left.
THIS AND THAT: Quay Walker was flagged 15 yards for unnecessary roughness on K.J. Osborn midway through the second quarter. One play later, though, safety Adrian Amos bailed Walker out by intercepting a Cousins pass. … Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson proved tough to handle with seven catches for 59 yards.
THE UGLY
BLOCKED PUNT: Green Bay’s special teams have been trending upward this season. But one week after the Packers tried a fake punt that failed, they had a punt blocked.
After Green Bay’s first drive went nowhere, Minnesota safety Josh Metellus raced up the middle and blocked a Pat O’Donnell punt. Green Bay’s Dallin Leavitt picked up the loose ball at the 5-yard line, went backwards and was tackled at his own 1.
Green Bay’s defense did yeoman’s work, though, keeping Minnesota out of the endzone and forcing the Vikings to settle for a field goal.
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